Tractor industry is the backbone of a country farm machinery industry, tractor strong national farm machinery industry to strong, from farm machinery purchase subsidy system that domestic tractor industry output value of about 300-35 billion yuan, is the first large category domestic agricultural machinery industry, at present the machine more than 200 enterprises, companies have thousands of, directly or indirectly practitioners millions, important;On the other hand tractor is a lot of the power source of the agricultural machinery, tractors and vane, tractor to determine the overall course of agricultural machinery industry, the development direction of tractors and agricultural machinery industry presents positive correlation, the relationship between the tractor industry largely equates to agricultural machinery industry, then 2021 tractor industry will be how to develop?
2020: Expected chaos, unexpected prosperity
Practically speaking, from the end of 2019 to the first five months of 2020, almost no one was bullish on tractors, but in the first half of the year there was a lack of demand and inventory, and in the first five months of the year there was a disruption in the supply chain that prevented new production.
God never shuts one door but he opens another, enter in June after the industry, market demand has increased, after the tractor industry comprehensive recovery, in October, as a result of responding to natural disasters in heilongjiang province launched a drastic dual policy, to the already boiling oil industry is pouring a gourd ladle, then a rare off-season best-selling irrational exuberance,Hot conditions in the industry continued until the end of December.
This is unexpected prosperity, according to the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy system data inferred that in 2020, the domestic tractor industry to achieve effective sales of more than 270,000 units, the vast majority of enterprises in the past backlog of inventory swept away, "radish fast does not wash mud", problems, sick machines are also packaged for sale.
Unexpected prosperity is accompanied by unexpected chaos, a sudden increase in demand, coupled with a double tonic not seen in years, has some discerning minds looking for blood to join in the feast 鬄.
The author in ningbo in October, weifang survey found that only five or six month added 15 or so large and medium-sized tractor production enterprises, although temporary assembly workshop is the most simple, but the product is in short supply, and basically all cargo northeast heilongjiang, is validated by the Qingdao national conference in November, the author's judgment,A large number of new faces appeared on the exhibition, and there are also jiangsu Dima Chi and other heavyweight cross-border dark horse, the tractor industry further discrete, the industry ushered in a more chaotic, more dark era.
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Two, 2021, thousand sail competition, 100 boats contend, ask the tractor river lake who main ups and downs?
All the past is the prologue!It is no longer important whether 2020 will be the year of recovery or recovery. What matters is how 2021 will be, because only by seeing the distant sea of stars can we take a good road at our feet. Then how will the tractor industry develop in 2021?
I'm trying to give you some broad predictions.
1, the industry will "big river song turn east" or all the way?
Domestic agricultural machinery market due to a trade war with China, the national macroeconomic regulation and control, subsidies and other uncertain or sudden external factors, the characteristics of the often there will be ups and downs, which adds difficulty to us judge the trend of industry, so could not be used purely market-oriented thinking, rational tools to analyze, to truly grasp the trend of the industry will grasp the first principles,The author thinks that the first principle of agricultural machinery has two, one is the price of grain, the other is the increase and decrease of planting area.
It is highly likely that grain prices will rise in 2021, at least at a higher level.Higher prices will encourage farmers to plant and attract capital to the countryside.
Rising food prices and growing acreage are being driven by two forces.
The first is the national agricultural policy. To be sure, the country is more active in agricultural policy, and will even introduce a more radical industrial policy in the face of the epidemic. Therefore, the policy level will support the stable and rising food prices.Second, the reduction of 50 million mu of corn in 2015 and 10 million mu of rice in 2018 have achieved two major effects of de-stocking and structural optimization. At present, corn is not only in short stock, but also enters a replenishment cycle. Although rice and wheat are in safe stock,However, it is still not enough to meet the country's psychological expectation of coping with the global epidemic crisis and the uncertainty of international food trade, so we will encourage to increase the planting area of staple crops and encourage a variety of grains in the later stage.
Predicting the tractor industry in 2021 requires cutting through the fog and filtering out the non-essentials.As long as grain prices remain stable or rise steadily, the planting area will recover growth. Although there may be an increase in the planting area of corn and a decrease in rice and soybeans, it is only a structural change. Overall, the planting area of grain will increase in 2021.
As long as this first principle is established, the tractor market in 2021 will not be bad, the biggest uncertain factor is the subsidy policy, but the subsidy policy is structural adjustment, will not change the overall trend of the tractor industry, the author of 2021 tractor market is stable upward.
2. How does the subsidy policy change?How much will subsidies affect the industry?
The demand trend of tractor industry, long-term or macro to see grain prices and planting area, short-term and medium to see agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy.
It is no exaggeration to say that subsidies can make the tractor industry soar overnight, but they can also make the tractor industry fall overnight.
The regulation of the invisible hand to the market is regular and slow, while the visible hand is irregular and visible. It is obvious that the national industrial policy determines the market trend, and policies must be studied and respected.
Tractor industry are focused on subsidy policy in 2021, more than optimism and pessimism, who is the end of November heilongjiang land reclamation, heilongjiang, qinghai province, anhui, gansu provinces such as emergency sharply lowered the tractor product single subsidies, someone reading this is the 2021 national farm machinery purchase subsidy policy to scale down or to crack down on the tractor subsidies danger signals,Laying the foundation for the upcoming 2021-2023 subsidy policy, but THE author has a different view.
The author thinks that heilongjiang agricultural reclamation, sharply lowered the tractor stand-alone subsidies in heilongjiang province is a correction in double repair policy, at the same time, Vietnam burning ever more brightly on the production of body fluid poured a pot of cold water, production enterprises and dealers to lose reason god wake up, at the same time to the market to curb waste must have is in the school, so the local policy efforts would be in a bit,Although some provinces have adjusted to the wind, more provinces have not adjusted.
In fact more than a few provinces, command single machine subsidies is inflated, remember in 2019, shandong, hebei, anhui, a dozen provinces, including xinjiang, to adjust a round of tractor subsidies, inhibition of strong market irrational and hit the "big horse-drawn car" phenomenon, so the heilongjiang province is actually late for policy action,It cannot be interpreted as a signal that policy is about to change.
Third, in 2021, the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy for tractor products will certainly be adjusted, which is no doubt, but the subsidy policy is to adjust the structure, rather than suppress or inhibit the development of the industry, the author judged that the main line of the policy will be "to encourage development, overall stability, promote norms, structural optimization".
The tractor industry is the engine of the agricultural machinery industry, the engine can not rest fire, subsidy policy will always support and encourage, and make the engine more powerful, but in order to maintain the healthier development of the engine, it will be optimized and upgraded.
Tractors in 2021 is the biggest change in the subsidy policy should be "structure optimization", the author forecasts 180 horsepower or more heavy tractor machinery shifting models will figure will reduce, but power directional control, power shift, CVT transmission, with the former outfit tractors, unmanned automatic navigation equipment and other high technical content, high efficiency model of single figure will increase,Medium-sized tractor under 100 horsepower subsidy will not reduce, some amount of bedding face horsepower period may also increase subsidies, other places will have greater autonomy, there are some places on the small power tractor subsidies, some provincial capital of orchard tractor, mountain tractor segmentation categories such as increase subsidies, and overall judgment is structure optimization, differential and more targeted,This is characteristic of post-subsidy apps, and companies should adapt rather than panic.
Enterprises should adapt to and meet the subsidy policy, if the subsidy to inhibit muscle and power heavy tractor virtual target, the enterprise should be quick to small and medium power tractors and subdivision demand, the author expects 2021, 180-230 horsepower heavy haul opportunities is restrained, and 100 horsepower and under LunTuo will usher in a new round of prosperity,This is the typical hot spot rotation phenomenon of domestic subsidy market.
Table: Adjustment of tractor subsidy amount of Heilongjiang Agricultural reclamation system in December 2020
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3. Is the state of "jungle" worsening or order rebuilding?
Tractor industry may be the most competitive industry, from 2010 to 2020 10 years, the total number of enterprises increased more than 130, the whole industry presents a typical "jungle" competition pattern.
Before 2010, there was still a "multi-oligopoly" competition pattern, and the market share of the top 5 in the industry was more than 75%, basically in line with 20:80 principles, industry competitive but also have order, but in 2020, the industry first 5 combined market share is less than 50%, the entire industry is obvious in discrete state of "the jungle", the competition status, the biggest problem is that "good money after bad money", the price war is the most superficial means, in order to survive companies will have a lot of no bottom line means.
Will the jungle deteriorate or will order be restored?It depends on policy direction and industry profit margins.
Through the analysis of the subsidy policy, predictable policy will encourage orderly and fair competition in 2021, but will hit the "big horse-drawn cart" marginalized, such as play ball, it is safe to say the opportunist survival soil and the space will be narrowed sharply, 2021 new competitors will reduce, incoming opportunist will start out in recent years,Really have core technologies and cost control advantages of enterprises will gradually "stand out", the original head enterprises are not safe, spring retreat, could enter a second deep the industry reshuffle, truly to adapt to the market and cater to the policy of enterprise game will get a new ticket, a lot of companies will quit, this is the law of the market, but there will be a large number of enterprises to enter,However, the later entrants will be different. The later entrants will be big names with strong background and abundant capital, such as Dimatch, Country Garden and Xugong. It is very likely that the crossover players will become reshufflers.

Third, facing the unknown new world, what is the winning rule in the tractor industry?
Enterprises are fighting for survival every day, clear policy and see the competitive environment is for better development, but only these are not good, in the tractor industry to win there are higher requirements, in this round of new elimination competition to get the qualification of the new field of tractor brand also need to have more skills.
1, the core component self-control is the key to stick to the end
Now society, no man is an island, no must have blown production enterprise may be behind closed doors, so enterprise through the form of outsourcing parts spare parts is very normal, according to coase's view, the enterprise internal manufacturing cost is higher than external transaction costs, from the external procurement accessories is economic, it is advisable that a large number of parts outsourcing,It can effectively reduce enterprise fixed asset investment, shorten the time of new product development, and reduce the risk of entrepreneurship to the greatest extent. However, the negative product of outsourcing mode is technology spillover and the pain of homogenization.
Companies must know what to outsource and what to make themselves!The author thinks that the best way to avoid or reduce the intensity of homogenized competition is to improve the self-control of enterprises, for tractors, is the main engine, gearbox, axle, four assembly control system of four items or self-control ability, and if the steering gear, transmission, lifter small assembly or half assembly can self-control and can effectively reduce homogeneity competition.
From a global perspective, John Deere, Case New Holland, Klaas, Agco, Kubota, as well as domestic brands such as Yituo Dongfanghong, Dongfeng Agricultural machinery and other international and domestic head brands, engine, front axle, transmission chassis and other core components are basically homemade.
Such as yi tuo have the most complete domestic large and medium-sized tractor "gold within the supply chain" - the east diesel engine, Mr Fu yi tuo axle, dongfanghong gearbox, went on the steering gear, etc., yituo relatively closed system of the internal supply, effectively prevent the following and imitators, so, in the domestic 203 tractor brand imitation yituo products less than 20,The rest are all imitated by Levo and Ningbo Benye, and the problem is that the supply chain of Levo and Benye is foreign cooperation.
The enterprise that can win in this round of elimination competition is not necessarily the enterprise with the highest self-control rate, but the enterprise that has no self-control rate can never enter the new game, let alone go out of the foreign country to the international track.
This round of reshuffle will be a technical reshuffle
In the last round of competition, the competition is the opportunity ability and the ability to use the subsidy policy, as well as the cost control ability, but with the optimization of the policy, the reduction of opportunities and the compression of cost space, the cost advantage of small enterprises will be lost soon, the domestic tractor industry will usher in the era of technology reshuffle and the era of technology.